Undergraduate grade point average is a poor predictor of scientific productivity later in career.

The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the undergraduate grade point average in prediction of scientific production of research trainees during their fellowship and later in career. The study was performed in 1320 research trainees whose fellowships from the Croatian Ministry of Science, Education and Sports were terminated between 1999 and 2005. The data were analyzed using logistic regression. The results indicated that undergraduate grade point average was negatively associated with scientific productivity both during and after the fellowship termination. Other indicators, such as undergraduate scientific productivity exhibited much stronger positive association with scientific productivity later in career and should be given more weight in candidate selection process in science and research.